Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times and KUARFM 89.

And hello again, everyone.

We trust you're enjoying a safe and peaceful Thanksgiving holiday and with a couple of others just around the corner holidays that is.

We'll look at what the new year is likely to bring in business and politics.

That's in a moment.

First, the election just concluded.

Once again, Arkansas underperform much of the rest of the nation in terms of how many of us voted.

Although midterm elections invariably attract fewer folks to the polls than in a presidential balloting, this year's nationwide turn out was fairly spirited about 46% of the eligible population that's nationwide.

Arkansas turnout was about five points fewer.

Why?

And was polling this year a better indicator of political sentiment?

Than in previous elections.

So we're joined by Doctor Janine Perry of the University of Arkansas political science faculty and director of the Arkansas Poll, and doctor Heather Yates of the Political Science staff at the University of Central Arkansas.

But first, in Shira Quasi, our Gwen Ifill legacy fellow has a report about why her home state of Arkansas has one of the lowest voter turnout rates and how to encourage young voter participation right now, on the national scale in Arkansas, it's not very competitive.

And I think that does depress turn out when people don't think it matters, when they think that the winners of foregone conclusion the situation is bleak.

But we found young people hoping to turn things around by building change at the grassroots level.

The young Dems have really done the best that we can to take the message that voting is important to people directly.

Don't even register to vote for the president.

But what do you wanna do it it's it's so important.

And if young people show up, we can literally change everything.

It's different if one of your peers or a young person says, do you want to get registered to vote?

Voting is the way we get to have an exchange with people that we don't get to talk to everyday by registering what we think at the polls.

The older generation isn't always going to be the older generation forever, and someday that's going to be us.

And we're going to have to live in a world and in a country where the majority of us didn't vote and we didn't express our opinions.

And then we're left with issues that could have been resolved.

We were younger and instead we're having to deal with them when we're older.

And we're back.

Janine Perry will go to you first in these fevered, spirited times that we seem to be into the turn out.

Surprise you at all.

Are we just more or less accustomed in Arkansas to voting in fewer numbers than some of our neighbors?

Well, I mean I I think it's, it's both things at once.

Most of us are paying attention to the hot contest at the national level because that's what's on all of our nationalized news sources for the most part.

And so things feel spirited, but then they're not of course at the state level on down and Arkansas is not an exception in that regard.

That's true in most of the states.

But in terms of Arkansas's own performance, you really have two aspects that have long been the case.

One is that we're lower.

In terms of both of the factors that are strong predictors of political participation of all types and that's education and income.

So Arkansas poorer and has a lower educational attainment and that's reflected in her political participation.

But then the other aspect are, you know, we've been slow to adopt some of the changes that most of our peer states have that we know boost turnout because it reduces the cost of registering and voting.

So that would be, you know, things like having the online option.

To register or you know giving having no excuse absentee voting or easier mail ballots.

You know things along those lines that we know from decades now of research in political science that will increase voter turn out by a few points every every step we take and we can actually get a a modest increase in Arkansas so far opted not to do those things.

Heather Yates there would not appear to be much sentiment in fact for doing some of those things.

I would like to echo what Doctor Perry has outlined for Arkansas ad and punctuate that culturally Arkansas has had a long history of single party dominance.

And so when you're a voter that identifies with the out party, the observation that your impact or that you have very low feelings of agency or feeling like you have the ability to impact government through elections.

So it is a conflation of all of the very practical aspects that the state legislature.

Governs and and then the state election officers govern.

And it's also culturally and what we have seen since the election of 2020 in Arkansas and within the region broadly, is that state legislatures have no appetite for making voting easier.

As a matter of fact, restricting access to the ballot box is what we're seeing that trend and that was actually in play in the midterm election and the governor's race.

Arkansas reduced early voting from 30 days to three weeks.

Just one example.

So in other words, what we're looking at is a combination of factors here, but we haven't mentioned money to and that would seem to be a a crucial factor in that Miss Sanders was really the only in terms of the statewide races, she was the only nominee really who had an opponent with any real money behind it was a man in this case.

That's true, but we also want to keep in mind that the marijuana measure, at least the the Pro forces in particular, had a lot of money and money we know does stimulate turnout.

So it's probably a reason Arkansas wasn't lower than she.

She could have been.

I think she came in 39th overall.

She was actually up a few points from 2018, but that's because in 2018 she was again among among the lowest.

So it does spur some interest particularly, right.

Then when people see advertisements, when when they get some one-on-one communication.

But it's just really hard to work against.

It almost doesn't matter how much money there is if you're working against all of these other demographic factors, these other institutional factors and as doctor Yates rightly points out, the cultural, long-term cultural factors, including low competition in Arkansas politics.

Did either of you, do we have a good sense at all of post election of how important?

Younger voters were were they a significant factor in Arkansas?

But certainly they were elsewhere in the nation.

Heather.

So it appears not for a couple of reasons.

One, in Arkansas, the mobilized voters are going to be mid range, upper level age wise voters.

These are also the voters that participate in the polling on the ground.

There's two formidable polls that are deployed in Arkansas on the ground.

What we see in terms of any kind of youth bump was only about 2%, two to 3%.

And so this observation is built upon all the other contextual.

I items that Doctor Perry and I have outlined right.

So we've got this mounting kind of mountain of evidence that shows how difficult it is to mobilize young persons.

And also I'd like to ECHO and punctuate something that was already pointed out is the role of money in advertising is that buys exposure.

And so that is already probably mobilizing people who have got in their minds or made their minds up how they're going to vote, have a voting plan.

We don't have a whole lot of evidence showing how these these.

Finite campaign cycles actually have any persuasion effects.

They do have mobilization effects.

And that's what Doctor Perry I think was rightly pointing out.

Yeah, Janine Perry.

Yeah, it's just tough to get those young folks voted.

We voting, we know that we had a 30 year high nationwide, but they're always the.

We were just talking about this in my class actually that it's always the lowest turnout group.

You know, they barely hit 20 to 22% turnout most of the time.

And in addition to that this generation is a small generation.

So they're really going to have to punch above their weight in significant ways, in particular when they face boomers who have the money and the experience.

And the education to turn out and then also there are really big demographic group, right, that that big bump in our our population demographics.

So these younger folks are significantly different than the generations ahead of them, I think more so even than in the past.

But if they want to make a difference, they're really going to have to step up their game.

And there's a lot in Arkansas working against them in that regard.

There's an old saying, I think that you don't really get interested in voting until you have a mortgage.

But, but in terms of issues, you know, we had Janine Perry mentioned marijuana was on the ballot and that was a very expensive ballot proposition for both sides elsewhere in the country.

Abortion was a a motivating factor we know in a great many jurisdictions but apparently not so much in Arkansas.

Do you think that owes to the fact that we are such a conservative state that we're we're so red?

Heather Yates.

So I'd like to outline a couple of factors that are playing into this that nationally there was a Dobbs effect.

But if we really drill down into that data, we see that there are different regional inflections of the Dobbs effect or or put in another way, different intensities in Arkansas and throughout the South as a region, we actually see very conventional variables outweighing Dobbs effect.

I do want to also offer the observation that even though we don't see the.

The so-called Dobbs effect, mobilizing voters to the polls.

We actually do pick that up in a few attitude changes in polling on the ground from 2021 to 2022.

There have been some changes in attitudes, but that didn't manifest at the ballot box.

What we do see on the ground in Arkansas and throughout the South is kind of an over, I should say, an outsized impact of the political economic cycle because the South as a region was disproportionately impacted.

By rising costs according to that consumer pricing index.

And so when you have the South that is experiencing this outsized economic impact, that actually translated into a very conventional forecasting model because the political economic models gauge two things.

And the second quarter economic reports and then presidential approval ratings and an Arkansas Biden bottomed out about 31%, which is trailing about 10 points behind the national average, so.

I don't know that it's actually a culturally conservatism argument that we can offer in this data.

But the political economic model of election forecasting performed as expected on the ground in Arkansas because voters, especially in the polls, were expressing the issue of economy and inflation as one of the principal outweighing issues.

And that is where Republicans have polling advantages.

And that played out in Arkansas.

Let me go to Janine Perry and on the nature of.

Survey research itself, the the survey research industry has been going to the great period of reexamination over the last really the last decade.

Changes in technology, how do we reach the right sample etcetera.

How do the as a whole, how did the, we know the Arkansas poll is extremely accurate well, but how did the industry do as a whole.

Our week is it catching up with the times, with the technology.

Well the, the problem I think for polling is that in the broader tech culture there are always new platforms and new distractions, new ways to reach people.

The old ways die out and so nationally you know they the pollsters will catch up and but then you know the technology will change again.

I guess the the good news for pollsters in Arkansas is that Arkansas is always a couple of decades behind the times.

So for now in Arkansas the best samples seem to be those that are using the older.

Technologies so like we've introduced a core significant cell phone responses into our traditional sampling approach by by telephone but if you you know adopt the the texting technology that's been more efficient financially as well as you can get things you know faster.

It's just not a good technology for Arkansas because it it just really is not a an accurate distribution of of likely voters that will change over time the technologies will adapt right and and evolve.

But Arkansas is a little slower to do that.

So that's really the reason we're we're having effective polling here just using telephones.

OK, got it.

End it there because we are simply out of time.

Janine Perry, Heather Yates.

Thanks very much for being with us as always and come back soon.

Thanks.

Thanks.

We'll be right back.

Back now with a couple familiar faces and familiar bylines, independent journalist Steve Bronner.

And Wes Brown, publisher of the Daily Record, gents, thanks for coming aboard.

We are just, you know, a few weeks away now from a new Chief Executive officer of the state of Arkansas.

And what do we expect, Steve?

Well, I think she's going to basically what?

What Sarah wants, Sarah will get.

I think she'll have a very successful first session.

There's typically a honeymoon period for all governors.

And she will have a a very good one because of her, her status and the party, her personnel, her persona.

So I think she'll it'll it'll be a successful session for her.

What will she do with it?

Still, we don't.

She didn't give us a lot of details during the campaign.

It's obvious that education will be a huge focus of hers.

Expect to see an emphasis on on school choice.

We don't know what that's going to be exactly, but it's going to be she's gonna, there will be a move to offer, you know, parents away to send kids to private schools if they want to.

W brown.

There's also criminal justice.

She's on record as saying, let's, let's lock some more of them up.

Yeah like Steve said I think they're ohh she'll get what she wants or we're we're hearing words of a possibly a a new prison.

What size they're going to be we don't know as Steve said also education is going to be a big focus would be administration.

I think you'll have a totally a lot of new faces a lot of new people in her cabinet.

Will she govern like DeSantis or or other popular Republican governors?

We'll have to wait and see.

Like Steve said, we haven't talked to her, but the press has reached out to try to to communicate.

But we can't get her ohh, you know, press conference so or in a personal interview.

So it'll be interesting to see what she says when she comes into office at her state of the state address.

Well, we have a General Assembly, of course, that is redder than ever.

I mean, they were super majorities before now.

And they'll be even larger, expanded their majorities in both Chambers, Steve, just a couple of weeks ago in the November election, 29 in the Senate and 82 in the House.

And these are just, you know, basically where is this a one party state or a no party state at this point?

Because it's just so dominant, right?

In that fact that maybe even be harder to have that big a majority.

But you know, interesting watching this organizational committee meeting a few weeks ago, couple weeks ago.

Senate education filled up really fast.

What does that tell you that tells there there are plans afoot.

Sure.

And that was one of the few issues that that Sanders really offered a lot of detail about.

Or not a lot, but some at least gave us an idea, at least gave us an acronym Arkansas learns.

So there that there will be a push to do that kind of thing to to allow parents to send kids their kids to schools using state dollars or or or at least.

Tax credit dollars.

So we'll see what happens with that.

How radical it is, is.

That's what we'll have to wait and see.

This has been tried numerous times and it's just gotten a little bit bigger each session.

Different types of scholarships, but still not much because there's a lot of support for public schools, especially in this rural state where where most communities don't have a private school.

But we'll see how far it goes this time.

Yeah, and W brown too.

She got miss Sanders.

Got almost 2/3 of the vote cast.

So if that's not a mandate, it's kind of tough to know what one is.

Yeah, I think you know early on in some people were thinking if if Chris Jones got to 40% that would be kind of a victory for the Democratic nominee.

In the last few elections, Democrats haven't gotten higher than I think Jones got 35%.

It's been lower than that in the previous election.

So yes she does have a a mandate to.

The governor and I think Steve mentioned the Education Committee but it would be interesting also the judiciary committees in both the House and Senate to see who who's going to govern that and also you have a new Senate President with Bart Hester and see how how they work together with the House Speaker on the other side the leadership of the General Assembly of course and the the governor have to make the numbers work now right now the you know the Treasury just overflowing with.

Dollars but on one notices that the unemployment rate is kind of inching up a little bit W brown so and and you know there there's concern for the broader economy as well so take it away I think the last time we had a a big surplus was back doing B ministration and but we do know you know when you have a surplus it's easy to spend but you know the economists are talking about a potential recession on The Who wants wants to let in 2020.

Legal or or even some are saying we already in one.

So the thing you know about doing economic good times when you have a surplus that surplus can easily disappear even one as big as the one that Arkansas has.

So I think if if they come in thinking that they're going to spend and and spend and spend that may not be the wise thing to do.

Well I would go back to criminal justice guys for just a second because every candidate it seems except maybe the nominees.

And land Commissioner, we're on board with expanding the prison system now no one.

There's a good argument that can be made, one supposes, for adjusting the parole pardon.

Well, the parole system anyway, but we're on track to add something in the neighborhood of 1500 beds over the near term.

The construct, the capital cost, the initial cost of those prisons is high.

But not as high as continuing to operate them over the next several years.

So you're committing, we're going to commit the state to a 10s of millions of dollars in ongoing appropriations.

Even the Democratic candidates, though tended to say that they were supportive.

Sure, I mean because at this point.

We can discuss the.

The, the, the theories about how to how to reduce crime and all that.

But right now the the the jails are are full.

And and they can't just be let out or they can be just let out.

But no one wants to do that.

I think we're about 2000 inmates over capacity in the state system right now.

Well it's Senator Hester, the Senate Majority Leader or the President Pro Tem.

You know he was asked by Robbie brought the other day you know, do we need 1000 beds and he said I'm thinking 3000.

So it's it's going to be that we're going to build some prisons some prison space.

Yeah West Point be interested in if you see something on the other side of it you know and in terms of prevention and I think you know also the other things those dollars will will the teachers get up, get another raise will they.

It didn't happen in the special session and they pushed it counted toward this 2003 session so.

I I think Democrats and and the educational system are hopeful that some of those that money will be set aside for for teacher pay and toward education.

That's what are we looking at in terms of economic development or economic trends anyway as, as as the new year approaches, what's the outlook?

Let's start with Christmas retail.

Uh, well, the National Retail Federation said that that has.

It's kind of a mix of a forecast for for the people are going to spend, but they're going to be cautious and not spend as much as far as their personal budget.

I think you're going to see a big Black Friday through Cyber Monday this this upcoming weekend.

You'll see a lot of people do a lot of their spending during these three days, three or four days.

But then as we get closer to the Christmas, I think people are going to be more internally focused.

So spending time with.

Family are not traveling as much but staying close to their home.

So I think the and and the biggest concern for for most families of course is inflation and and also we have a possible rail strike out there that could could see that that Salem may not be able to get all his toys to to the proper place around Christmas time.

So that could be coming to play too.

And in terms of the inflationary impacts, the, you know whether it's supply chain or or whatever, the Department of Finance and Administration, well the entire state government keeps a close eye on retail sales, yes.

And and we've along with that we've had a.

You know it's a very it's a very RedState, but a very cautious Republican legislature and.

You know, there's been a general feeling of let's be careful, we don't know how much of this is huge surplus is real and how much of it is.

Kind of phony money from all this government federal government coming money coming in.

So COVID relief.

Yeah.

Yeah it's still that stuff is still the the Infrastructure Act still is you know barely gotten here so you know liquidity is not the issue.

You know we're at the moment anyway at the moment.

So there's I think there'll be a lot of you know DFA has always been extremely cautious and so are the legislators.

Yeah.

Well and that brings us back.

Yeah.

W brown.

That brings us back to Miss Sanders.

Plan or her campaign pledge to as soon as possible phase out the state income tax.

Yeah.

And that's that, that's always gonna be an interesting debate at the state capital, how much to cut we've had that has been the legacy of our current governor who, who will be leaving office as your husband to his legacy has been economic development and tax cuts and you know.

Coming in, can you continue to cut and and and where do you cut and and who does it impact?

Will it impact the middle class the working class which is what most people would prefer or will go to the wealthy or or will it go to business.

So it'll be interesting how the debate goes and we talked about the supermajority I I think a lot of the debate will be dominated by a, by the traditional.

That's your own academic developed more moderate Republicans that that are are still talking about fiscal issues rather than social issues.

And what we saw Steve during the the Hutchinson the eight years of the Hutchinson administration is basically you know two blocks of two wings of the Republican Party in the General Assembly.

Yeah separated by ideology separated by region right urban versus rural and Mr and Mr Hutchinson on a tightrope walking a tightrope between he did.

Eight years of a pragmatic government, gubernatorial leadership.

So he he didn't have to do that.

One thing interesting by the way, that we should point out is that.

Dissent governor elect Sanders today announced that she had named her new senior advisor Chris Caldwell to her 2026.

Reelection campaign and transferred $2.5 million to her to her account so.

Any thought that she's.

Planning on coming and leaving?

Maybe she has plans to stay here for eight years.

Well, does anyone believe that her political plans end with the Arkansas governor's mansion?

She's no, no I I think obviously she was talking during the campaign and she was campaigning on national issues.

She has close ties and has a great name recognition a name recognition among the the Trump Republicans.

So if I I guess the the litmus test will be who will be the lady for the Republican Party by the time we get around to over the next year and into the 2024 presidential election.

Who will lead the A the Republican Party?

If it's if it's the Trump or if it's Trump, then of course she may have a a cabinet seat or or something else with Trump.

Or if it's DeSantis, then then all bets are off.

Because we're simply out of time, guys.

Thanks for you for coming in.

As always, we thank you for watching and see you next.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times and KUARFM 89.